Latest on Irma and its impacts in Georgia-Carolina
Now that Irma appears to have mostly made up its where it is going, it is becoming more and more clear what the likely impacts will be in Georgia and South Carolina. Earlier this week, it looked like Irma could make landfall as far north as South Carolina, meaning it would still be quite strong when its remnants passed through the CSRA; however, the latest indications/forecast trends indicate that will likely not be the case.
Based on the forecast below issued at 5 p.m. Friday, 9/8/2017, it now looks all but certain that Irma will make landfall in South Florida as a major category 4 or possibly 5 hurricane and then travel the length of the Florida peninsula over land. Assuming this scenario, the storm will have a full 24 to 36 hours to weaken before its remnants pass over Georgia, and we feel the effects of its remnants.
In this scenario, we could get 6 to 10 inches of wind driven rain. The storm will likely be a low end tropical storm when it moves through the west central part of the state, so while we can expect 25 to 35 mph sustained winds in the heaviest rain bands with 35 to 45 mph gusts, the maximum winds will occur well to our west on places like Macon, Columbus, and even the Atlanta area, where the storm is expected to remain a heavy rain producer with 25 to 35 mph winds. The good news is that the conditions described above will likely not be enough to cause widespread damage, although 10 inches of rain would certainly cause minor flooding issues, especially in the usual low lying flood prone areas. The only bad news here, and I think this threat will also be pretty low based on current information, is that we will be on the "right" side of the storm, meaning there could be a few brief, small (EF-0 or EF-1), spin up tornadoes as far east as the Augusta area. However, the greatest threat of tornadoes will be the closer to the center of circulation you get, so those in Macon and possibly even the Atlanta area will be at greatest risk of tornadoes.
Of course, if the storm track does shift east and the center of the storm passes closer to the Augusta area, the wind and tornado threat would be greater, but the amount of rain would be pretty much the same. If it continues to shift even farther west, the effects here in east central Georgia would be even less.
I realize this may be information overload for some, so here is the bottom line of what I expect the impacts from Irma to be in the CSRA/Augusta area:
Most likely impacts in the Augusta metro area:
- 6 to 10 inches of rain late Sunday through early Tuesday with as much as 10 inches possible.
- 25-35 mph sustained winds with 35-45 mph gusts, mostly during heavier rain bands.
- Slight tornado threat (brief EF-0 or EF-1 tornadoes, not super cells)
- Isolated to scattered power outages possible
I hope this information has been helpful and clears up some of the misinformation that has been going around. Please share with your friends/family and share any photos you take of Irma on my Facebook page. Thanks for reading!
Sincerely,
Chris
